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Heavenly Consortium: China Construction Comments on the semi-annual report requested a “neutral” rating for the first time
Tianxianggugu released a comment on the semi-annual report of China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668.sh) on the 26th, requesting a “neutral” rating for the first time. The details are as follows:
In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 111.33 billion yuan, operating capital of 5.25 billion yuan, net capital attributable to the parent company of 2.35 billion yuan, basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan, and diluted EPS based on the company’s total equity after issuance was 0.08 yuan. (Because the company was listed in 2009, year-on-year data and related growth and decrease targets were not compiled.)
The company’s operating conditions in the first half of the year are in line with Tianxiang Investment Consulting’s expectations. The profit forecast will not be adjusted for the time being. It is expected that China State Construction will be diluted from 2009 to 2011. The EPS are 0.18 yuan, 0.21 yuan and 0.26 yuan respectively. The current dynamic PE corresponding to the stock price of 5.09 yuan is 33 times, 29 times and 24 times. Compared with other companies in the same industry, it does not have obvious valuation advantages. For the first time, it requires “neutral” ” rating.
601111.sh) commented on the interim report and downgraded the company’s rating to “neutral”.
In the first half of 2009, the company achieved operating income of 22.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.71%; operating costs of 1.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.92%, and total capital of 2.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.02%; net income attributable to the parent company The capital was 2.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.03%. Achieved basic earnings per share of 0.25 yuan.
Tian Xiang Con Gu commented as follows:
During the reporting period, Air China’s net capital growth rate was better than market expectations, among which jet fuel hedging income was the main contributing factor. It is in line with the views expressed by Tianxiang Consulting in his speech in late May (namely, “Fuel hedging business may significantly affect costs in 2009”).
Specifically, during the reporting period, the company achieved a reversal of 4.003 billion yuan in the fair value of jet fuel hedging (basically consistent with Tianxiang Tougu’s previous estimate of 3.7 to 4.4 billion yuan), and the jet fuel hedging was delivered upon maturity. With a loss of 2.553 billion yuan (exceeding Tianxiang Gugu’s previous estimate of 1.7 billion yuan), the two contributed a total capital of 1.45 billion yuan, accounting for 53.1% of the total capital, becoming the main contributor to the company’s profits. In the first half of the year, the company also received a return of 824 million yuan from the Civil Aviation Construction Fund, achieving a net exchange income of 176 million yuan, accounting for 30.2% and 6.5% of the total capital respectively. The main aviation industry accounts for only 10.3%.
Excluding the impact of aviation fuel hedging, establishment fund returns and exchange gains, Air China’s main aviation business realized total capital of 280 million yuan during the reporting period, which was an improvement compared with the profit of 740 million yuan in 2008. Business volume data shows that in the first half of the year, Air China’s passenger traffic and cargo and mail traffic increased by 13.6% and -9.5% respectively, of which international routes increased by 18.2% and -1.8% respectively. However, due to lower fare levels than the same period, the company’s air passenger and cargo and mail revenue fell by 6.9% and 46.6% respectively year-on-year. At the same time, as the average price of aviation fuel fell sharply year-on-year, the decline in related operating costs was greater than the decline in revenue. Ultimately, the gross profit margin of the company’s main aviation business increased by 5.4 percentage points to 15.3%. It is expected that in the second half of the year, Air China’s main aviation business will still be able to achieve certain profits due to the continued strong domestic demand, the gradual recovery of domestic demand, and the combined effects of aviation fuel costs and fare levels.
It is worth further pointing out that the company’s jet fuel hedging income during the speech period was completed against the backdrop of a 50% drop in WTI in the first half of the year. Based on the average WTI price of US$60/barrel in 2009, WTI is expected to fall by only about 12% in the second half of the year. Therefore, Tianxiang Consulting estimates that the fair price reversal of jet fuel hedging in the second half of the year may only be in the range of 1 billion yuan. At the same time, taking into account the delivery losses at maturity, jet fuel hedging will not be able to contribute by then and may even slightly affect the company’s performance.
Tianxiang Investment Consulting raised the company’s 2009 EPS by 0.05 yuan to 0.28 yuan, and temporarily adheres to the guess of 2010 EPS of 0.17 yuan; calculated based on the opening price of 7.2 yuan on August 25, corresponding to the static price-earnings ratio The difference is 26 times and 42 times. Based on the company’s performance in the second half of 2009 is expected to be worse than the first half of the year, Tianxiang Investment Consulting downgraded the company’s rating to “neutral.”
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Tianxiang Investment Consulting: XCMG Technology’s mid-term report comments on requesting an “overweight” rating
Tianxiang Investment Consulting announced on the 26th that XCMG Technology (000425) .sz) Interim report comments, asking for the company’s “overweight” rating, details are as follows:
From January to June 2009, the company achieved operating income of 1.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; operating costs were 1.03 million yuan , a year-on-year decrease of 94.7%; the net capital attributable to the owners of the parent company was 13.3 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1122.8%; the basic earnings per share was 0.02 yuan, compared with 0.002 yuan in the same period of 2008.
Operating expenses were flat year-on-year in the first half of the year, but increased by 12% year-on-year in the second quarter. The company’s current products are mainly loaders, road rollers, and pavers. The year-on-year increase in operating income in the second quarter was mainly due to the 51% year-on-year increase in compaction machinery that benefited from the country’s expansion of infrastructure construction. However, loaders were affected by imports, and revenue fell by 20% year-on-year. Product upgrades increased gross profit by approximately 5 percentage points year-on-year. During the presentation period, the company launched upgraded products such as K series loaders, new generation F series loaders and new generation XS series single drum vibratory rollers, which improved the profitability of the products. Loader gross profitThe year-on-year increase in profit margin (1.13 percentage points) was mainly due to the large year-on-year increase in sales expenses (2.25 percentage points).
6. Looking forward to the full year of 2009, Tianxiang Investment Consulting estimates that the net capital attributable to the parent company will be 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, mainly due to the following three points:
1 ), as the clothing terminal consumption market continues to pick up, the company’s quarterly revenue growth will increase month-on-month, and the revenue growth rate in the second quarter will be a “U”-shaped bottom. Tianxiang Investment Consulting estimates that the company’s full-year revenue growth will be about 16%.
2) It is analyzed that the gross profit margin continues to increase, and Tianxiang Investment Consulting estimates that it will increase by about 1.1 percentage points year-on-year.
3) The income tax rate increased significantly: the joint-stock company was recognized as the second batch of high-tech enterprises in 2009, and the income tax rate was reduced from 25% to 15% from 2009 to 2011, correspondingly increasing the company’s 2009 The net cost is about 10% (compared to before the income tax rate was reduced).
7. Regardless of the dilutive effect of the company’s additional issuance in 2009, Tianxiang Investment Consulting estimates the company’s basic earnings per share in 2009-2010 to be 0.64 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively, based on the opening price of 14.35 on August 25. In yuan calculation, the corresponding static price-to-earnings ratios are 22.4X and 16.2X respectively, which have certain valuation advantages and clear long-term growth potential. The continued recovery of the clothing terminal market and the continuous increase in quarterly performance will be the catalyst for the company’s stock price to fall. Maintaining “growth” “hold” investment rating.
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Tianxiang Investment Consulting: Jinjing Technology’s interim report review insists on a “neutral” rating
Tianxiang Investment Consulting announced on the 26th that Jinjing Technology (600586 .sh) commented on the interim report and insisted on the company’s “neutral” rating.
The 2009 semi-annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.03 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%; realized operating costs were 51.38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.57%; the total capital was 53.18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease 60.33%; the net capital attributable to the owners of the parent company was 33.86 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.54%. Earnings per share in the first half of 2009 was 0.06 yuan.
Tianxiang Investment Consulting’s comments are as follows:
The company’s performance is basically in line with Tianxiang Investment Consulting’s previous expectations. The company’s operating revenue increased thanks to the company’s soda ash facility being put into production. Soda ash revenue in the first half of 2009 was 378 million yuan, accounting for 37% of the total revenue, becoming the company’s largest sub-product revenue. High-quality float glass, which originally accounted for 36% of revenue, is slightly lower than soda ash revenue. This is due to the sharp plunge in float glass prices since 2008.
In the first half of 2009, the expense ratio decreased, increasing by 2.96 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the financial expense rate increased by 1.9 percentage points, reaching 5.57%; the management expense rate increased by 0.87 percentage points, reaching 4.08%; the sales expense rate increased by 0.18 percentage points, reaching 2.98%.
The company’s earnings per share in 2009 and 2010 are estimated to be 0.19 yuan and 0.20 yuan. Based on yesterday’s opening price of 14.7 yuan, the dynamic PE in 2009 and 2010 are 77 times and 74 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “ Neutral” rating.
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