China Securities Network News
Guotai Junan: Maintain the steel industry” “Overweight” rating
Guotai Junan released its steel industry weekly report on the 2nd, stating that the momentum of the decline in steel prices has decreased and the increase in inventory has slowed down, maintaining the industry’s “overweight” rating. The details are as follows:
The problem of overcapacity in the steel industry has once again attracted the attention of state authorities. Last week, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, once again emphasizing that in the future, we must focus on strengthening guidance for the development of steel and other industries, and strictly review the production of rebar, wire rod and other products. Promise certificate. Guotai Junan believes that this will be a medium-term benefit to steel companies, especially steel companies whose new capacity reduction projects have been approved. The accelerated pace of industry internalization and partial reorganization is also conducive to the industry’s increased concentration and long-term development.
Last week, market prices in various places continued the decline of the previous two weeks. Construction steel products such as threads and wire rods continue to fall sharply, with North China experiencing the largest declines. The average price of 20mm rebar in major international markets is around 3,760 yuan/ton, which is about 200 yuan lower than last week. Hot and cold coiled plates, medium and thick plates and large and medium-sized profiles also experienced varying degrees of decline. It is worth mentioning that the downward momentum of spot market prices in some areas on Thursday and Friday was significantly reduced. Taking into account the influence of market psychology, it is expected that this week will enter the consolidation stage. After the off-season demand is confirmed, steel prices are expected to stabilize and decline.
Inventories in the sluggish market continue to decline. The increase still mainly comes from rebar, wire rod and hot rolling. Hot-rolled plates hit a record high, reaching 3.18 million tons. The decline rate of cold rolling and medium plate is smaller. Due to the rapid fall in prices, terminal enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and market transactions are not good. In terms of steel mills, the completion rate of screw rolling lines remains high, and the inventory pressure of construction steel products is still considerable in the near future. Guotai Junan believes that after entering the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, the increase in actual demand for steel will begin to be released, and the bottoming out of prices will lead to changes in market psychological expectations, and the recently accumulated inventory will gradually be digested.
Last week, the downward trend of ore prices slowed down, and domestic ores were generally stable; the transactions of imported ores were sluggish, and prices continued to decline. Ocean freight is in a volatile trend. The clean coal market is operating smoothly, while the sales situation of coke is more serious, and the price has fallen slightly. As the stainless steel market picks up, the nickel ore market has been relatively volatile recently.
Last week, the broader market and steel prices continued to fall, hitting the sector, with the sector falling by 7.9%. Guotai Junan believes that under the current situation of sharp decline in steel prices in the sluggish market, leading steel companies, especially large steel mills with a high proportion of direct supply products, still have good profitability due to price adjustments. September will once again enter the off-season for construction steel demand, and construction steel prices are expected to be the first to rebound. Considering that the performance of most steel mills in the third quarter will increase significantly from the previous quarter, and the industry is in a stage of gradual decline, the “overweight” rating is maintained. Investors are advised to pay attention to leading companies such as Baosteel Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and companies with a relatively high proportion of construction steel, such as Bayi Iron and Steel, Jiugang Hongxing, Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Valin Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., etc.
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Guotai Junan: Shipping industry briefing maintains the industry’s “overweight” rating
Guotai Junan released a shipping industry briefing on the 2nd, stating that BDI, oil tanker shipping Prices fluctuated, container shipping and mainland coal shipping prices continued to decline, maintaining the industry’s “overweight” rating, details are as follows:
Container cargo volume is abundant, shipowners continue to prepare for promotion; oil tanker demand is sluggish, and short-term shocks continue; Offshore bulk cargo trading was flat, and BDI fluctuated downwards; inland coal transportation boomed, and freight rates continued to decline.
On August 28, BDI closed at 2421 points, with the weekly average falling by 7.61% month-on-month. Among them, capesize ships, Panamax and super-flexible and large-flexible ships were -9.24% and -8.94 respectively on a week-on-week basis. %, 1.05%, -0.1%: The recovery of the international steel downstream industry has slowed down, iron ore port inventories continue to be high, and offshore bulk cargo trading has been sluggish, resulting in the continued correction of the BDI index.
Coal transportation prices in the Mainland continue to decline: on the one hand, affected by the extremely hot weather and the replenishment of power plants, the number of days of coal storage in direct power plants has dropped to 16 days, of which the number of days of coal storage in East China Power Grid has dropped to 14 days. , On the other hand, the price difference of international and foreign coal has increased, and the import volume of coal has declined, resulting in a decrease in the demand for coal transportation in the mainland. The mainland coal freight index in this issue fell by 2.2% compared with last week, with coal freight prices from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Ningbo rising to 50 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton respectively.
Oil tanker freight rates fluctuate: short-term industry demand has not improved significantly, and VLCC and MR transportation market transactions are still sluggish. As of the 28th, the TD3 line WS index was 30.78 points, a week-on-week decrease of 14.47%; Baltic waste tankers The freight index closed at 433 points, with the average value falling by 1.92% from last week; the equivalent time charter of the TC7 line is US$6,600/day. OPEC, EIA and IEA all held a relatively pessimistic attitude towards the demand for crude oil market in their August speeches, and are still optimistic about the tanker market after 2010.
Container cargo volume fluctuated, and CCFI continued to decline: On August 28, CCFI dropped by 6.14% month-on-month, with the European route, US West route, and US East route falling by 16.25%, 2.96%, and 1.13% respectively on a week-on-week basis. At present, the cargo volume of European and American routes is still abundant, and freight rates have been successfully improved. Many shipping companies have announced that they will raise market shipping rates again in early September.price.
Maersk and Hanjin performed well, while international tankers and container shipping suffered smaller declines: freight rates in the container shipping industry fell, and the stock prices of Maersk and Hanjin advanced in weekly gains; international shipping stocks continued to fall affected by the market correction, but this time Zhou Changhang Shipping, China Merchants Shipping, and China Shipping Container Lines experienced smaller declines. The former was because the market was optimistic about its recovery after 2010, while the latter was mainly due to the continued decline in container freight rates.
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry: During the adjustment period, it is recommended to allocate long-range oil shipping and China Merchants Shipping, which will see a promising industry recovery in 2010, as well as China Shipping Development, which will benefit from the rise in domestic coal freight prices. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to China Shipping Container Lines, which suffers from the recovery of imports and frequent increases in freight rates.
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Guotai Junan: Baoxianniao (002154.sz) maintained an “overweight” rating in comments on its mid-term report
Guotai Junan announced on the 2nd that Baoxiniao (002154.sz) The newspaper commented that it maintained the “overweight” rating, as detailed below:
In the first half of 2009, the company achieved sales revenue of 392 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.03%; operating costs of 47.59 million yuan, and net capital of 39.49 million yuan , year-on-year increases of 11.49% and 40.99% respectively; earnings per share were 0.16 yuan. In the first half of the year, the company obtained extraordinary income of 4.35 million yuan, and net capital after deducting extraordinary gains and losses was 35.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.56%, which is equivalent to the growth rate of operating costs.
In the company’s brand planning, the brand of Annunciation Bird is divided into four series: classic, business, leisure and leather goods. Each series is developed independently to avoid cross-coverage by consumers. As of the end of June, the company had 668 outlets of the Angelus brand, an increase of 31; and 73 outlets of the Sanjiero fashion brand, an increase of 28.
The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Baoniao achieved net capital of 9.74 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 26.48%; among which, import orders fell significantly, and the business attire group buying business experienced a year-end decline. After the periodic upsurge, the number of orders gradually decreased, and the success rate of large orders increased; EBONO e-commerce, CARLBONO advanced customization and BONO TAILOR building customization are cultivation businesses and cannot become the company’s capital growth points in the short term.
The company’s analysis gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 49.28%, a year-on-year increase of 1.12 percentage points, mainly due to the decrease in purchasing costs. However, as the company’s sales network expands and the proportion of direct sales increases, the three expenses increase rapidly. In the first half of the year, the company’s period expense rate was 36.57%, 3.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year, which largely limited the increase in costs.
The company was certified as a high-tech enterprise in Zhejiang Province in August, and the income tax rate of 15% applies to the headquarters from 2008 to 2010.
The company plans to publicly issue 65 million additional shares and raise no more than 800 million yuan for marketing network upgrade projects.
Guotai Junan determined that the public additional issuance is more likely to be implemented at the end of 2009 or 2010. It will have no impact on the company’s performance in 2009 and will have a significant dilutive effect on the company’s performance in 2010. Based on the company’s current total share capital of 249.6 million shares, the earnings per share in 2009 and 2010 are 0.69 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively. The company’s future growth is certain, its valuation is low and its growth rate is small in the later period. It has shown strong offensiveness in the recent market adjustment. Maintain “overweight” rating.
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Guotai Junan: Baosteel Co., Ltd. maintains an “overweight” rating in its interim report review
Guotai Junan announced on the 2nd that Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019.sh) The company commented on the report and maintained the “overweight” rating, with details as follows:
The company sold 10.124 million tons of commercial billets in the first half of 2009, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%; it achieved operating income of 65.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8%; completed Net capital was 670 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 93.1%; basic earnings per share were achieved at 0.04 yuan.
The gross profit margin of the company’s main steel business fell by 15.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.5%. The reasons are: 1) The company’s target market demand was sluggish in the first half of the year, and the billet capacity utilization rate was 81% of the same period last year. The output dropped, and the cost of circulating steel per ton fell, shrinking the gross profit margin. 2) Steel prices were low in the first quarter. Although prices fell in the second quarter, they were still significantly lower than last year’s highs. In the first half of the year, the steel price fell more than the cost, and the gross profit margin declined.
The company’s gross profit margin in the second quarter gradually increased with the increase in production, and the sales gross profit margin dropped from 3.5% in the first quarter to 6.6%. Later, as international steel prices fell, the company significantly raised its ex-factory prices in each month of the third quarter. The ex-factory prices in September were generally raised by 1,500 yuan/ton compared with June. The company’s gross profit margin is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and its performance will also significantly improve. Although steel prices may correct in the fourth quarter, the company’s profitability is expected to still be higher than that in the first and second quarters.
The main sources of the company’s profits in the first half of this year were cold-rolled carbon steel, steel pipe products and hot-rolled carbon steel, with gross profit proportions of 30%, 28% and 22% respectively. Among them, benefiting from the recovery of the automobile and home appliance industries, the gross profit margin of cold-rolled carbon steel has remained stable, which is the company’s profit drifting with the trend. The company’s stainless steel business turned a profit, benefiting from the digestion of low-priced nickel inventories and the stabilization of stainless steel prices in the second quarter. The gross profit margin of hot-rolled carbon steel dropped to 6% from 2.9% in the second half of last year.
Special steel products and rigid plates are still profitable, with gross profit margins of -12.7% and -5.6% respectively.
The company’s current net assets per share are 5.12 yuan, PB is only 1.3 times, far lower than the industry average of 2.2 times. Although steel prices have plummeted recently, the company’s products have clear advantages and are less affected by steel price fluctuations. Ex-factory prices have steadily increased in the third quarter, and various types of output have also begun to release as downstream demand recovers. Performance is expected in the second half of the year and next year. will drop rapidly. At present, the company’s stock price has a clear investment value after substantial adjustments. It maintains an “overweight” rating and raises the target price to 8.2 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times in 10 years.
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After a substantial adjustment in the stock price, the investment value is clear, and the “overweight” rating is maintained. The target price is raised to 8.2 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times in 10 years.
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